France's expected military withdrawal from Mali spells an uncertain future for the conflict-ridden Sahel state, raising questions about the ruling military junta's capacity to combat jihadists and a growing humanitarian crisis.

A brutal Islamist insurgency first emerged in Mali in 2012 before spreading to neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger. It has left swathes of the vast country outside state control.

Former colonial power France intervened militarily in 2013 and has roughly 5,000 troops spread across the Sahel, however, French troops have not been able to stop the conflict.

Paris' relations with Mali have also deteriorated sharpy since the country's army seized power in 2020, and defied calls to swiftly restore democracy.

Multiple sources have told AFP that French President Emmanuel Macron will announce a military pull-out from Mali and redeploy forces elsewhere in the Sahel.

How the junta would cope with such a scenario remains an open question.

Mali's poorly armed and trained army currently works alongside French troops, in a conflict has killed thousands of people and displaced around two million.

The uncertain outcome of a French pull-out is drawing mixed reactions from Malians themselves.

"It's going to be hard, but it's going to be OK, inshallah," said Souleymane Diakite, a shopkeeper in the capital Bamako, echoing a common sentiment in the city.

But a member of a local association in the northern city of Gao, who requested anonymity, was more cautious.

"Everything is going too fast, it's not good," he said, referring to the string of upheavals that have rocked Mali in recent years.

Army officers led by Colonel Assimi Goita deposed elected president Ibrahim Boubacar Keita in 2020. The army then deposed the civilian leaders of a transitional government last year, in a second coup.

Goita has pledged to restore civilian rule but has so far refused to commit to a date, drawing international condemnation.

Last month, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) imposed a trade embargo and shut its borders with Mali over delayed elections.

- Period of uncertainty -

Most of Mali remains deeply unstable and the predicament of many the nation's 19 million inhabitants dire.

Army-appointed Prime Minister Choguel Kokalla Maiga recently told interviewers that about 80 percent of the country is plagued by insecurity.

The United Nation's humanitarian agency OCHA also estimated this month that about 7.5 million Malians need aid.

Among other problems, sanctions-squeezed Mali defaulted on debts the equivalent of about 81 million euros ($92m) this month.

"We're entering a period of uncertainty," a Bamako-based diplomat who requested anonymity told AFP.

However, the immediate impact of a French withdrawal will be military.

Ornella Moderan, of the Institute for Security Studies think tank, said that French troops provide a "deterrent effect in many areas".

Malian forces are also likely lose air support, access to supplies and medical evacuation should France withdraw.

- 'Learn to cope'-

Former Malian Prime Minister Moussa Mara said recently that the country has no choice but to "learn to cope".

"I think that's a good thing," he said.

Jihadists have often targeted Malian soldiers in devastating attacks. However the military has reported few casualties in recent months.

The army-dominated government has instead hailed "brilliant military victories" in operations that have allegedly killed hundreds of militants.

The result of such operations in lawless parts of Mali are almost impossible to independently verify.

Malian researcher Boubacar Haidara nonetheless suggested that the junta's triumphant rhetoric was having a positive effect on locals.

He added, however, that the army currently has "no means of controlling the bush" and its main challenge remains recapturing jihadist-controlled areas.

Hanging against the backdrop of France's possible withdrawal is the alleged presence of Russia's Wagner private security firm in Mali, which the US and others say has deployed to the country.

A French departure could leave Russian paramilitaries to fill the security void, according to a European diplomat, who suggested that the possibility constituted a strong argument against complete military disengagement.

Mali's junta has denied contracting the Wagner group.

A French withdrawal also leaves open the possibility that the junta could seek dialogue with jihadist groups -- an option that France has long opposed.

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Macron expected to announce Mali withdrawal
Paris (AFP) Feb 15, 2022
French President Emmanuel Macron this week will announce that French troops will be withdrawn from Mali and redeployed elsewhere in the Sahel following a breakdown in ties with the country's military regime, concurring sources say. Several security sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP that Macron's announcement to end the nine-year French mission in Mali will coincide with a European Union-African Union summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. France initially deployed troops ... read more