Eight years after France sent troops to Mali to prevent jihadists from overrunning the country, it faces tough choices over how to keep pursuing Islamist extremists without becoming bogged down in a potentially unwinnable war.

Five French soldiers have been killed by roadside bombs in Mali over the past 10 days, bringing to 50 the number of troops killed across the Sahel since France launched a campaign to clear northern Mali of jihadists in January 2013.

The latest victims included Sergeant Yvonne Huynh, the first female soldier killed since the French intervention began.

Her death Saturday, claimed by a group linked to al-Qaeda, coincided with a massacre across the border in western Niger, where unidentified gunmen killed around 100 villagers in one of the region's worst atrocities.

These deaths -- and disputed claims Tuesday from villagers in central Mali that up to 20 wedding guests were killed in an air strike -- have clouded recent successes chalked up by France's 5,100-member Barkhane counterterrorism force and its African partners.

- Shifting public mood -

In the past year, the French have killed the leader of the notorious al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb group, Abdelmalek Droukdel, as well as one of the military leaders of the al-Qaeda affiliated Group to Support Islam and Muslims (GSIM).

Anxious to avoid becoming mired in a long Afghan-style conflict, Paris is preparing to announce a withdrawal of the 600 additional troops it deployed to the Sahel last year.

But whether the drawdown signals the beginning of the end of France's Sahel mission is not yet clear.

Defence sources have told AFP that President Emmanuel Macron would like to go further in reducing the number of French troops in the Sahel region before the next presidential election in April/May 2022.

"Up until now the French have not really questioned France's role in the Sahel. But you have to be very careful. Public opinion can change very quickly," a government source told AFP.

- Buying time -

In a sign that the Sahel mission could become a domestic political football, some opposition politicians have already begun to question the wisdom of staying the course.

"War in Mali: for how much longer?" the hard-left France Unbowed party queried on Monday.

"The more we help Mali the more it collapses," said Marc-Antoine Perouse de Montclos of France's Institute of Development Research (IRD).

He pointed to a military coup in August that echoed a putsch in 2012, a year before the French arrived.

"The longer we stay the harder it will be to leave," Perouse de Montclos said, adding: "Beyond the number of (French) dead, the real question is how to withdraw without losing face."

But for Michael Shurkin, senior political scientist at the US-based defence think-tank Rand Corporation, "this was never going to be quick."

Citing long-running governance issues in the region, he said: "All France can do is buy time and create space for its African partners to be doing what they should be doing."

- IS versus al-Qaeda -

The growing assertiveness of the Qaeda-linked GSIM, meanwhile, could vex plans for a staged pullout.

France had identified the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara group as the number-one threat to the region, but its efforts to stop IS, which was defeated in Syria, from regrouping in the Sahel have had the effect of bolstering its arch-rival.

"Today it (the GSIM) is Mali's worst enemy," Barkhane's commander General Marc Conruyt acknowledged in November.

France is pinning many hopes on a new elite European force, Takuba, set up to support Malian combat troops following repeated appeals by Paris for more burden-sharing by its EU partners.

In the past year Barkhane has also stepped up its cooperation with a regional five-country force, the G5 Sahel, which France hopes will eventually shoulder regional security.

But the G5 Sahel remains poorly-trained and underfunded -- it is chronically short of air power, surveillance and intelligence-gathering.

In an interview with Radio France Internationale (RFI) in early December, the G5 Sahel commander admitted that the force was still dependent on France "to offset the gaps in our national forces."

"For us, as a joint force, it would be premature to consider (a reduction in Barkhane) and risky for the G5 Sahel," General Oumarou Namata Gazama warned.

Defence Minister Florence Parly, in an interview with Le Parisien newspaper this week, reiterated that French forces were "not destined to stay forever" in the Sahel.

She insisted, though, that they would stay "as long as is necessary" for Sahel nations to "be capable of responding themselves to the (jihadist) threat, which is what they are starting to do."

Central Mali deaths: What we know
Bamako (AFP) Jan 6, 2021 - Controversy has erupted over an attack on Sunday on a village in central Mali, located in an area where the French armed forces say they carried out an air strike on jihadists the same day.

The French military reject any accusation of a mistake, saying that their operation was a precision raid carried out after extensive surveillance.

Here's what we know of the events:

- What happened in Bounti? -

Several residents of the remote village of Bounti say a wedding party came under air attack in mid-afternoon on Sunday, sparking panic.

Almost all describe the aircraft as a single unidentified helicopter.

At least one witness says the helicopter released bombs or possibly fired rockets, while others are vaguer.

An association defending the Fulani ethnic group in Mali has published the names of 18 people that it says were killed. A witness has also described mangled bodies that were buried on Monday in a common grave.

Various sources have said that there were many wounded, included women and children, who were taken to neighbouring towns.

- What does France say? -

After the attack, social media began to buzz with speculation about a possible mistake.

Only the Malian armed forces and the French anti-jihadist mission in the Sahel, known as Barkhane, carry out offensive air operations in Mali.

France's military broke its silence on Tuesday after AFP gathered witness accounts.

Its armed forces headquarters denied any connection with any attack on a wedding.

It said jet fighters had carried out a single attack killing several dozen jihadists in a planned and targeted operation.

The strike was carried out after the group had been monitored for several days, it said.

"There can't be any doubts or ambiguity, there was no wedding," a senior military official told AFP separately, adding that the air strike did not involve a helicopter.

- Were there two incidents? -

The French military account does not mention Bounti specifically.

It says its operation took place "west of Hombori, in the Ferendi region" north of highway 16 -- which places the attack in a radius of several kilometres (miles) from Bounti.

It also says the attack took place mid-afternoon, a time that concurs with the testimonies at Bounti.

However, the two versions of events are so starkly different that there has been speculation of two attacks, not one, which happened near each other at about the same time.

That narrative gained strength on Wednesday after the medical charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF), which works extensively in central Mali, issued a statement.

It said two villages -- Bounti and Kikara, which are 15 kilometres (nine miles) apart -- came under "bombardment" on Sunday.

It said it had cared for "eight seriously wounded people" who had "bullet wounds and skin lacerations caused by explosions."

Bullet wounds are incompatible with an air strike but are compatible with rounds fired by a helicopter or on the ground.

However on Wednesday MSF head of mission in the country, Juan Carlos Cano, said the NGO could not confirm that. MSF treated people in both places but they could have fled one area, he added.

- Why are the facts so sketchy? -

The MSF statement, issued by a respected organisation with grassroots presence, is a rare piece of first-hand evidence in this troubled region.

External verification is extremely difficult in an area battered by jihadist attacks and ethnic violence. Gaining direct witness testimony is difficult and travel to the area is hazardous.

Mali's armed forces and government have remained officially tight-lipped, a position that has helped to fuel speculation.

The French armed forces "are the only ones who opened fire in the zone... the Malian army did not carry out strikes," a senior Malian military source eventually told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Armed forces from the two countries have been working together for eight years to try to roll back the jihadists, and a catastrophic mistake is in the interest of neither.

Mali has a fledgling transition government following a coup in August.

The elected president, Ibrahim Boubakar Keita, was ousted by the military amid mass protests sparked in part by anger over failures to quell the jihadist insurgency.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron is under pressure to scale back Barkhane's 5,100-man complement.

His decision depends crucially on public perception about the viability of the mission, as well as losses.

Five French soldiers were killed by roadside bombs in Mali on December 28 and January 2, bringing the mission's losses to 50.

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Jihadists claim killings of French soldiers in Mali
Paris (AFP) Jan 5, 2021
An Al-Qaeda-linked jihadist group has claimed responsibility for an attack that killed two French soldiers in Mali. They died on Saturday when their vehicle hit an explosive device in the northeast, just days after three others were killed in similar fashion. The deaths brought to 50 the number of French soldiers killed in the West African nation since France first intervened in 2013 to help drive back jihadist forces. The Group to Support Islam and Muslims (GSIM) said it "detonated an explo ... read more