Two attacks less than 24 hours apart in northeastern Nigeria this week have laid bare the deadly but divergent strategies of Boko Haram and a rival jihadist group, the Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP).

How these insurgencies evolve will greatly shape the course of the country's decade-old crisis, say security experts.

The twin threats facing security forces came into focus with the attacks in Borno state.

On Sunday, a triple suicide bombing killed at least 30 football fans in Konduga -- an assault that bore the hallmarks of the original Boko Haram group, led by its long-time leader, Abubakar Shekau.

Shekau's faction typically use young women and children to target places of worship, markets and public places, seeking maximum civilian casualties.

Then, on Monday, more than 15 soldiers were killed, as heavily-armed militants overran Gajiram military base in a coordinated attack.

It followed the blueprint of attacks by ISWAP, whose stronghold is the Lake Chad region, where the porous borders of Chad, Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon come together.

The rival factions are rooted in Boko Haram, which in 2009 launched an insurgency with the goal of establishing an Islamic caliphate in northern Nigeria.

Since then, more than 27,000 people have died and 1.8 million have fled their homes. Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger have reeled as violence has spread there too.

ISWAP, a faction loyal to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group and led by Abu Musab Al Barnawi, a leader who has since fallen out of favour, emerged from Boko Haram in 2016.

ISWAP rejected Shekau, a tyranical figure who has appeared in several videos, deeming his strategy of indiscriminate attacks on Muslim civilians to be too brutal.

ISWAP is active in northeastern Nigeria, as well as the border area with Cameroon, the shores of Lake Chad and Niger.

A number of Boko Haram militants who have remained loyal to Shekau continue to operate in the Sambisa Forest and Mandara Mountains of the northeast, exploiting the region's rugged terrain.

- Terrorism as governance -

According to the International Crisis Group (ICG), ISWAP poses as an alternative government, fulfilling a role in one of the poorest regions in the world where many state services have been absent for years.

"By filling gaps in governance and services, (ISWAP) has managed to generate some support from local people," it said last month.

The group "digs wells, monitors livestock thefts, provides a minimum of health care. In the communities they control, taxes imposed are generally accepted by civilians," said the report.

And despite some attacks against civilians, ISWAP's targets are mostly military bases, where the group recovers weapons and vehicles.

In Gajiram, where at least 15 soldiers were killed on Monday night, the jihadists looted food stocks, but "did not hurt any civilians and made no attempt to attack the people who had taken refuge in the area, in the bush or at home", a local resident, Mele Butari told AFP.

As the conflict rages, with suicide attacks and killings on one front, and attacks on military bases on another, Nigeria's army have suffered.

Scores of soldiers have been killed this year across the region. Lacking equipment and training, troops have suffered a plunge in morale and desertions are on the rise.

The army have been unable to degrade ISWAP's activities, according to a member of a militia, fighting alongside the Nigerian army.

"ISWAP totally controls Lake Chad. None of its leaders have been arrested and none of its camps dismantled," he said, including in the districts of Duguri, Marte, Kukawa and Ngala where the main commanders live.

- 'Back in the game' -

After years of conflict, the Shekau-led Boko Haram have been left weakened by a lack of resources and men -- with a force between 1,500 to 2,000, compared to ISWAP's 3,500 to 5,000 force, according to ICG estimates.

Faced with ISWAP's rise and prominent media and propaganda campaigns, Boko Haram have countered, publishing a series of news releases and videos recently.

The suicide bombing last weekend in Konduga could serve as a statement, helping Shekau to "get back into the game," according to Jacob Zenn, a researcher at the Jamestown Foundation, an institute based in Washington.

"ISWAP has no operational problems on the ground, but faces an internal leadership crisis", he said.

He pointed to the eviction in March of Abu Musab Al Barnawi by supporters of a more radical faction within the group, and the assassination a few months ago of his deputy, Mamman Nur.

Amidst ISWAP's leadership turmoil, statement attacks by Boko Haram are a way of re-asserting their standing, he said.

A reunification of the two groups is "entirely possible," Zenn warned.

Demoralised, terrified, Nigerian soldiers face jihadists
Kano, Nigeria (AFP) June 20, 2019 - They are the soldiers and militiamen posted on the frontline in northeast Nigeria, caught up in their country's battle against Boko Haram and Islamic State's local African branch known as ISWAP.

Hundreds of their colleagues have been killed over the past year -- 50 in June alone.

Here, in testimonies that they gave on condition of anonymity, they reveal their fears, failures and sense of abandonment in a neglected conflict.

- A military officer -

"Troops are demoralised. Our fighting spirit has been weakened and sometimes troops flee as soon as the terrorists launch an attack without putting any resistance.

"Soldiers are not given the right equipment to fight the terrorists. Of course, they are given new assault rifles but it takes more than a rifle to face and crush a well-armed terrorist group like ISWAP.

"Most of the heavy weapons including tanks and other artillery equipment we use are old and don't properly work. They were only refurbished. They jam, fail or overheat when they are fired during encounters with the terrorists, when they attack military bases. This leaves our soldiers with no option but to abandon the bases and flee.

"The fleeing by soldiers emboldens the terrorists who interpret the withdrawal as sign of cowardice. This encourages them to escalate attacks, knowing they are not likely to face much resistance."

- A soldier in northeast -

"There is lack of coordination between ground troops and the air force. On many instances air support hardly comes when ground forces come under attack. This gives the terrorists who attack in huge numbers and firing heavy artillery on bases an advantage.

"As long as the war strategy doesn't change we are not likely to see any remarkable progress in this war against these enemies of humanity.

"Our strategy is largely defensive instead of combative. Soldiers are camped in bases fortified with trenches and mines. They hardly take the fight to the terrorists but only wait for the terrorists attack for them to try to repel them.

"We have lost a lot of lethal military equipment to these terrorists which they use to fight us.

"Soldiers work on superior orders. Troops can only leave their bases and launch operations on orders. We can't leave the base without an order."

- Another soldier -

"Soldiers are in some cases reluctant to put in their best in battle against Boko Haram terrorists for fear of being killed or wounded. They have seen how their injured colleagues have been neglected and how the families of their fallen comrades have been abandoned and their benefits not paid. This discourages some of us from fighting like soldiers because they don't want to end up like their unlucky colleagues.

"Our superiors don't care about our welfare and we are usually owed allowances.

"A lot of us are war-weary. We have been in the war zone for too long and are fatigued. We have lost the zeal to fight. This is the truth."

- Militiaman in Lake Chad area -

"ISWAP has not been defeated but pushed out and forced to retreat into Lake Chad islands. None of their core leaders has been arrested and none of their bases has been captured. ISWAP is in total control of Lake Chad and not an inch is in Nigerian control. All the claims of success against the terrorists are not correct.

"Their main camp in Duguri where their leader is based is intact. Their camps in Marte, Kukawa and Ngala (districts) where their major commanders live have not been destroyed. They think they are stronger than the army and are not thinking of a truce or surrender.

"They increased their attacks on soldiers since the Chadian forces deployed in the Nigerian side of Lake Chad. I think it is in response to presence of the Chadian troops who are determined to fight them. The attacks are likely preemptive.

"As for (Boko Haram's) Shekau faction, they have indeed been weakened. Shekau is also battling with diabetes-related health challenges.

"The (Nigerian) air force has lately sustained air raids on Sambisa forest where Shekau faction is based. The Konduga attack was like retaliation for the air campaign. It was a desperate attempt to hit back for their losses in the aerial attacks."

Related Links
Africa News - Resources, Health, Food

Tweet

Thanks for being here; We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain. With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords. Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year. If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor $5 Billed Once credit card or paypal		SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter $5 Billed Monthly paypal only

In his remit: African fintech entrepreneur helps migrants move money
Paris (AFP) June 19, 2019
The money transfer business is personal for Ismail Ahmed. It was cash wired by his family that allowed him to make the final leg of his journey from escaping fighting in his native Somaliland to London in 1988 to take up a university scholarship. Today, Ahmed leads WorldRemit, one of a handful of fintech firms that is upending the remittances business that has long been dominated by three US firms - Western Union, MoneyGram and Ria - as well as banks. Piggybacking on the development of mobile ... read more